Author Topic: The future doesn't look too bright.  (Read 5138 times)

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CV355

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2022, 07:47:40 AM »
So, I'm going to be very careful with this post so it doesn't turn into "politics."  I like that this board avoids politics, probably one of the last places I know of that does so...

There are several posts in this thread that point out that there's an ongoing problem in the workforce.  Up until last year, almost every automation project I worked on would actually create jobs for the customers.  I can only think of maybe 1 or 2 smaller projects that were sourced to reduce employee count (usually due to inherent danger in the process and risk to the operator, you'd be surprised what actually goes on out there).  As of last year, almost every customer is turning to automation to reduce workforce or fill gaps where there were massive walkouts/poaching scenarios.  I can't legally name customers (a former colleague of mine did on social media and got fired and sued for $1M back 6 years ago), but I work with a good number of Fortune 500 companies who are absolutely struggling to keep product moving out the door.  One in particular is down by 200 employees at one US location, and what they produce is in every house in the US.  There's a social trend to encourage and abuse job-hopping to maximize income.  I get it, I really do.  I'm sure many of us have some very humble beginnings in low-paying jobs and a $0.50/hr difference was massive.  But, many in the workforce are exploiting the job market to continually hop from job to job, artificially inflating the value of the position.  One customer has been trying to hire production floor operators at $27/hr and they're still struggling to find employees.  $27/hr...  That's something that isn't really being talked about, and it has a huge effect on the economy.     

BattlestarGalactic

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2022, 09:59:57 AM »
One word...."entitlement".   That is what the workforce has been told and now everyone thinks they deserve $$$ for even the most menial job.  And at the rate of inflation it takes that kind of money to survive.  All the hard working people that retired/quit during covid has left us in a huge rut that is the decline of manufacturing and productivity today.
Larry

CV355

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #17 on: August 16, 2022, 10:36:36 AM »
One word...."entitlement".   That is what the workforce has been told and now everyone thinks they deserve $$$ for even the most menial job.  And at the rate of inflation it takes that kind of money to survive.  All the hard working people that retired/quit during covid has left us in a huge rut that is the decline of manufacturing and productivity today.

I agree entirely.  I have a few friends in the industry that are hopping around from company to company every 3-6 months just to stack 5%-10% pay increases each time.  And sadly, employers are too short-staffed to operate with the same discretion they used to have.

It's a contributor to inflation, but not the biggest factor.  Without touching on politics, my opinion is that if the difference between "net" and "gross" was far less, everyone would win.

BattlestarGalactic

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #18 on: August 16, 2022, 11:41:27 AM »
I surely give lots more leeway to my guys, just to keep them happier and in my shop.  You can't play hardball like 10 yrs ago.  It takes years to train people and I'm shorthanded now and waiting to train just won't help right now and if this world continues to decline I'm not sure I'll be able to keep more guys busy in 3-6 months.  Losing them after training them is just another hinderance and wasted time today


Its a real balancing act.
Larry

1968galaxie

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #19 on: August 16, 2022, 01:27:41 PM »
If you think it is bad now - wait until the 87,000 new IRS agents start auditing small businesses.
They will try and find every $.02 not paid to the government.
Small business first then IRS will target individuals.
Scary and sad times.

428kidd

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #20 on: August 17, 2022, 07:59:16 AM »
+1 on 68 galaxie. It wont be the big companys with money to fight them that gets hit , it will be the little guy that does a little side hussel.

reednatron

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #21 on: August 17, 2022, 09:13:43 AM »
+1 on 68 galaxie. It wont be the big companys with money to fight them that gets hit , it will be the little guy that does a little side hussel.

100%

Falcon67

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #22 on: August 17, 2022, 09:37:53 AM »
>If you think it is bad now - wait until the 87,000 new IRS agents start auditing small businesses.

60% of IRS current staff are set to retire in the next few years.  They also need IT people to update systems - most of our returns are still processed on COBOL machines.  COBOL was designed in 1959.  Estimates are that if they can hire all 87K, that will put the IRS at staffing levels equivalent to 10 years ago.  Try calling to get a question answered - they can't, they don't have the people.  There won't be 87K auditors, sorry to bust your bubble.  Besides, IRS typically focuses on high net worth and corporate type audits because they require the most expertise.  Also, the IRS publishes their audit rates - if your business or personal income falls under 500,000 is around 0.83% of all returns. As a "small business" guy that has had some sort of reportable side hustle for many years, I wouldn't worry about it unless you're just filing total BS returns.  I've never heard a peep from them and I've filed some very big, long and convoluted returns over the years that included all sorts of "audit triggers".  YMMV.   8)

jayb

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2022, 09:53:45 AM »
I agree with Chris, I don't think it's likely that the additional agents are going to impact too many of us.  From what I have read on the subject the IRS undercollects by many billions of dollars each year, mostly because they don't have the staff to chase after the highest income earners.  Those folks can afford to hire high dollar tax accountants and attorneys to drag out any audit process, making auditing time and cost prohibitive.  Nobody likes the IRS, but they are a necessary evil for our country.
Jay Brown
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Tommy-T

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2022, 02:09:34 PM »
Covid 19 and its effects have certainly rocked the economy with supply chain challenges and worker shortages.

The government giving money to encourage workers to stay home has added its own problems as well as spiking inflation.

But the real problem I see is that there is nobody coming in behind us old timers that want to do manual work at any wage. This has been going on many years before the covi-flu crisis was even thought of.
Case in point. I was an automotive tech for 40 years. Had my own shop for 21 years.
In the 21 years I had a shop, not even 1 time did I have a young individual come in the shop looking for work. You know, like the old days when a high school grad (or even a drop-out) would come by and ask for work and start by sweeping and cleaning. Then upgrade to oil changes and brake work, eventually, with school, be a journeyman tech making a living wage.

I will admit that getting greasy, busted knuckles, cut, burned, is not fun.
But who is going to do the work in our future?

428kidd

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #25 on: August 17, 2022, 02:26:59 PM »
Same for me Tommy in the body shop end. No one wants to start out and work up. Everyone thinks they should start in where I'm at 21 years in the business.

BIGBLOCKHEAD

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #26 on: August 17, 2022, 02:30:08 PM »
I just turned 65 and have been in car dealerships my whole career since 1978.  I work in the parts dept in a Cadillac store and parts availability has been an ongoing nightmare for 3 years for a variety of reasons (IT problems at GM, UAW strike, COVID) and it is getting worse rather than better,  I agree that many of my generation have left or are leaving their fields ASAP and our replacements are not up to the task.  We are constantly needing techs, the young guys we get are just not experienced enough or hungry enough or something enough to get it done.  The brain drain in our store has been dramatic, we have aged out all the veterans in all areas and it is a mess now.  I have so many cars down and waiting for sometimes months for a part that kills our business is so many ways.  Heck, we can barely get any new inventory to sell on the New Car showroom.  Ugh!

Falcon67

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #27 on: August 17, 2022, 04:01:27 PM »
Quote
I will admit that getting greasy, busted knuckles, cut, burned, is not fun.
But who is going to do the work in our future?

Here's the real question for sure. We need plumbers, electricians, carpenters, bricklayers, techs of all sorts.  Somehow those things got looked down on over time and I think that's really hurting us now.  There's a interesting thought going around that "American culture" has taken a turn thanks to the pandemic.  We - USA - are an outlier in many areas, including work.  US workers average something like 10 weeks more work/year than German workers, 5~6 more than some other European countries.  Most of us older people that have been at it for 30~40~? years grew up with "grab your ass and let's go" type environments.  Newer generations don't necessarily think like that.  We look and say "you're lazy, you don't like hard work".  They say "What did you get for 45 years in the salt mine - you're wore ass out at 6x or 7x years.  I don't want to live like that."  They're not wrong, just different.  I'm looking at 47 years before the mast, two different careers and can I retire?  If I look hard at what I have for what I gave - it doesn't balance.  If "retired" is SS income and working part time, that's the way I'm wired so no problem.  Trucking seems an example - a lot of the real pro drivers were older folks and after a long time dealing with all the problems, low pay, being away from home all the time finally came to "screw this" and they left.  There are very few interested in filling that gap, and we all saw how that impacted everything.  I read an article not long ago about migrant farm working issues.  The vast majority are older and are well into suffering the results of working years in the fields.  More health issues, less physical tolerance to working outside and such.  Their sons and daughters look at mom and dad and "I'll go find some better way to live." So there's a lot of work going on to find ways to mechanize crop harvesting - but there are some crops that just can't be harvested that way.  Now we have two problems - who's going to fix the mechanical stuff and who's going to pick the remainder.  Answers are not easily forthcoming. 

Directly in this hobby we love - locally here, probably 90% of the machine type shops are gone.  The owners got old, tired and closed to doors.  Or, they "died doing what they loved", like in their office.  There are only a couple left.  Those shops have plenty of work, but is it enough to entice someone to bear the tremendous debt load to open a full featured shop, not even counting the issues that started this thread?  I think diesel work primarily sustains those shops.  When my ex-2020 F-350 had an engine recall for potentially mis-installed piston oilers, the dealer didn't pull the motor and inspect or repair.  Ford shipped a complete 7.3 and they did a swap.  Friend that runs the service section of the service sector of the local Lincoln dealer had his master tech retire.  He's strapped for transmission repair and has at least one tech in training, but that takes a while.  So he has to send that work out to other dealers.  And yea - parts.  I was in recently for an oil change and trailer control re-flash (recall) and one of the service writers was basically dedicated to calling customers to line up scheduled repair times because they finally got a shipment of parts for those jobs.  Some customers waiting 6~8~10 weeks. 

I work at a university and I'm encouraged that we're putting in a new Mechanical Engineering program.  That's a big stretch for a traditionally small, older "liberal arts" (music/theater/humanities) institution.  I hope it pays off.  We have a chance to expose a new generation to making things in the new tech world.  You hear the asking of companies saying "we need people that can think and do stuff" so, we're going to try.  Even if not at the university level, tech schools should be getting more air play IMHO.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2022, 04:07:12 PM by Falcon67 »

CV355

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #28 on: August 18, 2022, 06:58:39 AM »
We need plumbers, electricians, carpenters, bricklayers, techs of all sorts.

As long as testosterone keeps falling in the general male population, the younger generations are going to flock away from those types of jobs.  I feel like the automotive hobby is a good litmus test...  A lot of millennials and zoomers don't even want to get a license and drive these days.  It's sad to think about, but we're probably only a decade or two away from seeing the automotive hobby die out entirely.  Once EVs become more prevalent, the hobby will turn into "check it out, I made my electric car make Marvel movie sounds!" 



TJ

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #29 on: August 18, 2022, 07:21:16 AM »
We need plumbers, electricians, carpenters, bricklayers, techs of all sorts.

 Once EVs become more prevalent, the hobby will turn into "check it out, I made my electric car make Marvel movie sounds!"

The newer mustangs have buttons to change the exhaust sound...

Lot of research going into self driving cars...LOT of research.