Author Topic: The future doesn't look too bright.  (Read 5134 times)

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blykins

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The future doesn't look too bright.
« on: August 12, 2022, 11:56:11 AM »
Jay, feel free to move this to the non-FE discussion, but I figured since it involved the FE engine builders, it would be pertinent to the main forum.

Just heard a few minutes ago that Lance Smith (Craft Performance) has went out of business.  Closed his doors.  That just really saddens me.  I know other engine builders are competition to me, but I don't want to see anyone lose their business and not be able to support their families.   Everyone say a prayer for Lance and all the guys that worked there and for all the others in the industry right now.   Not being able to get parts to get engines out the door has become a real stumbling block. 

I contacted Mahle last week about a set of custom pistons for an FE build.  25 weeks.  I know there are other options available, but what happens when you have to wait 6 months to make an engine leave the shop? 

Lance, if you're reading this, I'm really sorry man.   I hope you can find work quickly. 
Brent Lykins
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jayb

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2022, 01:21:18 PM »
I found out about this early this week.  Lance is a stand up guy,  and he told me he is working on getting everyone their parts or deposits back.  A set of my heads were at his place for one of his customers, and those have been returned to me.  I wish Lance the best, and hope he is successful in anything he does going forward.  For our group of engine enthusiasts, I think its really sad to see another good FE engine builder close up shop. 
Jay Brown
- 1969 Mach 1, Drag Week 2005 Winner NA/BB, 511" FE (10.60s @ 129); Drag Week 2007 Runner-Up PA/BB, 490" Supercharged FE (9.35 @ 151)
- 1964 Ford Galaxie, Drag Week 2009 Winner Modified NA (9.50s @ 143), 585" SOHC
- 1969 Shelby Clone, Drag Week 2015 Winner Modified NA (Average 8.98 @ 149), 585" SOHC

   

badcatt

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2022, 02:13:32 PM »
I read about this earlier today on Facebook, It was a complainer post. This is a hard time for all builders. I was talking to a friend who is having a 351C built locally, He wants a set of Edelbrock heads on t. But they are not currently available. He was bouncing that and the option of finding a set of 1970 4V iron heads off me.
I looked at Jegs for the #61625 heads. They are listing a shipping date if 8/9/2024 pending manufacturer availability. Nothing like a 2 year lead time...

I hope Lance is able to land on his feet when this is all over with.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2022, 05:10:01 PM by badcatt »

e philpott

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2022, 03:36:35 PM »
Bummer , total bummer

BattlestarGalactic

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2022, 06:16:28 PM »
Saw this on FB.

It's everywhere, in every industry.

My shop deals in injection molding screws/barrels.  I had a 4 month lead time on 3 pcs of SS bar stock.  Even 4140HT can takes weeks instead of days.  Nobody has anything in stock.  If they do, you can get the random length quickly.  If you want a cut length, that can be weeks wait.


Bimetallic lining material used to be 4-6 weeks.  Right now we have an order that is 37 weeks out.  There used to be four suppliers in the US.  Now there is ONE!

Ive lived through some rough times, but in my 36 yrs at this company I have never had such a bleak outlook.

We are all screwed.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2022, 06:18:33 PM by BattlestarGalactic »
Larry

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2022, 09:53:06 PM »
Ya know I had my own business on a main road for 24 years and there was a repair shop right across the street. The shop is still there but I’m not the owner my partner is but in the 30 years there has been 7 or 8 shops go in and out of there and sometimes things can look a little bleak but you keep plugging along. Nobody likes to see a man go out of business especially if you know them. But the silver lining is that there’s some more customers out there that they are going to look at Brent, Blair, Jay, Barry, Ross and a few others. With all the problems getting parts it makes it tough to get stuff in and out of the shop but you gotta keep plugging along.

CV355

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2022, 07:36:37 AM »
It's crazy out there right now in all industries.  My wife and I work in industrial automation.  Certain items that used to be a 2-3 week leadtime are now upwards of 40-90 week leadtimes.  Machine shops used to quote me anywhere from 6-10 weeks for full drawing packages and now they're up in the 16-20wk range.  As for prices, I have been getting multiple emails a week from various suppliers indicating price increases from 3% to 40%.  It's insane.  And, everyone is blaming Covid for supply chain issues, but most of the companies I'm working with didn't shut down, and only had reduced production for a 3-4 month period in 2020.  You'd think that bullwhip effect would have already ended. 

TJ

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2022, 08:04:01 AM »
Really sucks to see a good business with a long standing reputation (like Craft Engines) go down.  Whatever is that's happening has a wide swath.  In the chemical industry, formulas often take years to test and develop.  Shortage of just one raw material messes everything up.  It's been whack-o-mole for the past couple years solving one shortage or another.

I went a bit nuts on the FE for my old truck 7 fast years ago.  Glad I did when I did.  It's been fun and still running great.

On the plus side, there are honest paying jobs out there...at least for now.

Falcon67

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2022, 09:21:51 AM »
I can relate to all the above.  Network Engineer - we have an outstanding order for about $180,000 in wifi and network switch units.  They are trickling in, but it's totally random.  Our access control systems parts are getting somewhat better on the control board side, but I have trouble getting door readers.  Like - right now, fergetaboutit.  We use iClass contactless access cards at work and I have a back order at HID open for 1000 cards since November 2021.  They can't get the good, durable card material - we may have to buy some sub-standard cards to get by, or make a big $$$$$ investment to move to mobile credentials. 

The NHRA Bracket Finals are set at Ardmore - I note that for this year, they are expecting half the normal teams because tracks have either closed or gone IHRA.  And the team size has been reduced from 50 plus alternates to 30.  Each team can field a "spoiler' team of racers that are there for the fun but don't count for team points.  I haven't made the two race minimum so won't be going this year.  We made one early trip before fuel spiked and I broke the car on Friday, so didn't even make a single pass LOL

Lots of Help Wanted around town - I don't attribute that to anything "nefarious" - decent housing is high buck, more like a city with 2 or 3 times out population and you can move 150 miles in any particular direction and make 2~3 times what people are willing to pay out here. 


GA445

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2022, 09:58:23 AM »
When you look at the big picture it even gets bleaker, the manufacturers are not quoting long lead times because of the volume of orders but because of material shortages on their end. Taking this all into consideration you have to ask yourself what their employees are doing during this down, they need to feed their families and pay bills, qualified help is hard enough to find without laying them off and hoping to get them back. Just in time supply theory has resulted in Just in time to close the doors

BattlestarGalactic

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2022, 11:19:48 AM »
From my viewpoint, the long wait times all leads back to lack of workforce.  That is what I hear from suppliers.  Materials are hard to get and I would bet that is lack of workers at the mills.  If not the mills, it's the mines not producing due to workers.  Etc.....

Larry

chilly460

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2022, 11:42:59 AM »
Saw that as well.  Same deal with my machinist, he was sort of semi retired but had plenty of work.  I had my 462” block and bottom end there and one day got the cal to come pick up my junk, he was closing shop.  Kind of left me in a bind as he didn’t balance it, which is odd as he had all the parts, but it stalled the project.  Car is running with the little 390 in it so no big deal, can’t imagine the frustration for guys that need to get their engine together to get a car completed

brettco

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #12 on: August 15, 2022, 12:38:59 PM »
 The talk on fb was people not getting a call or email to pick their stuff up- that was the problem.  I went through this with my hi tech cobra an engine that both took a year longer than I was quoted and both went out of business during that extra year. One guy had his numbers original gt500 block in the shop. Scary.

fe468stroker

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2022, 01:01:43 PM »
Everyone is right about the supply chain being in limbo.  The added frustration of finding good help just compounds the problem.  Everywhere you see signs wanting employees even with great sign on bonuses.  The shop owners can't do all the work themselves even if they had the parts or the time.  It is very sad that long time engine builders are forced out of business and Lance is a good example.  If this continues used parts will go out of sight because new castings and such are unobtainable even in the distant future.  The average person couldn't afford to build their dream FE.

pbf777

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #14 on: August 15, 2022, 01:07:51 PM »
From my viewpoint, the long wait times all leads back to lack of workforce. 


     This is as I see it, as one having been in this industry for forty years;.........no one wants to do a job anymore particularly where their hands will get dirty!  These days I see more working age individuals wandering around in the middle of the day in obviously not working attire, and hence, evidently leading to an extreme drop-off of potential employees being available to businesses. This only seems possible due to the Covid experience with the Government hand-outs incentivising the population to become non-workers, which has shall we say, led them down the economic ladder into accepting less, in order to be free to do as they wish, versus the necessity of having to actually work for a living.   :(

     And as Margret Thatcher once said: "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”   ;)

     And how are we doing?  Just take a look at the current National Dept!   :o

     Scott.



CV355

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2022, 07:47:40 AM »
So, I'm going to be very careful with this post so it doesn't turn into "politics."  I like that this board avoids politics, probably one of the last places I know of that does so...

There are several posts in this thread that point out that there's an ongoing problem in the workforce.  Up until last year, almost every automation project I worked on would actually create jobs for the customers.  I can only think of maybe 1 or 2 smaller projects that were sourced to reduce employee count (usually due to inherent danger in the process and risk to the operator, you'd be surprised what actually goes on out there).  As of last year, almost every customer is turning to automation to reduce workforce or fill gaps where there were massive walkouts/poaching scenarios.  I can't legally name customers (a former colleague of mine did on social media and got fired and sued for $1M back 6 years ago), but I work with a good number of Fortune 500 companies who are absolutely struggling to keep product moving out the door.  One in particular is down by 200 employees at one US location, and what they produce is in every house in the US.  There's a social trend to encourage and abuse job-hopping to maximize income.  I get it, I really do.  I'm sure many of us have some very humble beginnings in low-paying jobs and a $0.50/hr difference was massive.  But, many in the workforce are exploiting the job market to continually hop from job to job, artificially inflating the value of the position.  One customer has been trying to hire production floor operators at $27/hr and they're still struggling to find employees.  $27/hr...  That's something that isn't really being talked about, and it has a huge effect on the economy.     

BattlestarGalactic

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2022, 09:59:57 AM »
One word...."entitlement".   That is what the workforce has been told and now everyone thinks they deserve $$$ for even the most menial job.  And at the rate of inflation it takes that kind of money to survive.  All the hard working people that retired/quit during covid has left us in a huge rut that is the decline of manufacturing and productivity today.
Larry

CV355

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #17 on: August 16, 2022, 10:36:36 AM »
One word...."entitlement".   That is what the workforce has been told and now everyone thinks they deserve $$$ for even the most menial job.  And at the rate of inflation it takes that kind of money to survive.  All the hard working people that retired/quit during covid has left us in a huge rut that is the decline of manufacturing and productivity today.

I agree entirely.  I have a few friends in the industry that are hopping around from company to company every 3-6 months just to stack 5%-10% pay increases each time.  And sadly, employers are too short-staffed to operate with the same discretion they used to have.

It's a contributor to inflation, but not the biggest factor.  Without touching on politics, my opinion is that if the difference between "net" and "gross" was far less, everyone would win.

BattlestarGalactic

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #18 on: August 16, 2022, 11:41:27 AM »
I surely give lots more leeway to my guys, just to keep them happier and in my shop.  You can't play hardball like 10 yrs ago.  It takes years to train people and I'm shorthanded now and waiting to train just won't help right now and if this world continues to decline I'm not sure I'll be able to keep more guys busy in 3-6 months.  Losing them after training them is just another hinderance and wasted time today


Its a real balancing act.
Larry

1968galaxie

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #19 on: August 16, 2022, 01:27:41 PM »
If you think it is bad now - wait until the 87,000 new IRS agents start auditing small businesses.
They will try and find every $.02 not paid to the government.
Small business first then IRS will target individuals.
Scary and sad times.

428kidd

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #20 on: August 17, 2022, 07:59:16 AM »
+1 on 68 galaxie. It wont be the big companys with money to fight them that gets hit , it will be the little guy that does a little side hussel.

reednatron

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #21 on: August 17, 2022, 09:13:43 AM »
+1 on 68 galaxie. It wont be the big companys with money to fight them that gets hit , it will be the little guy that does a little side hussel.

100%

Falcon67

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #22 on: August 17, 2022, 09:37:53 AM »
>If you think it is bad now - wait until the 87,000 new IRS agents start auditing small businesses.

60% of IRS current staff are set to retire in the next few years.  They also need IT people to update systems - most of our returns are still processed on COBOL machines.  COBOL was designed in 1959.  Estimates are that if they can hire all 87K, that will put the IRS at staffing levels equivalent to 10 years ago.  Try calling to get a question answered - they can't, they don't have the people.  There won't be 87K auditors, sorry to bust your bubble.  Besides, IRS typically focuses on high net worth and corporate type audits because they require the most expertise.  Also, the IRS publishes their audit rates - if your business or personal income falls under 500,000 is around 0.83% of all returns. As a "small business" guy that has had some sort of reportable side hustle for many years, I wouldn't worry about it unless you're just filing total BS returns.  I've never heard a peep from them and I've filed some very big, long and convoluted returns over the years that included all sorts of "audit triggers".  YMMV.   8)

jayb

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2022, 09:53:45 AM »
I agree with Chris, I don't think it's likely that the additional agents are going to impact too many of us.  From what I have read on the subject the IRS undercollects by many billions of dollars each year, mostly because they don't have the staff to chase after the highest income earners.  Those folks can afford to hire high dollar tax accountants and attorneys to drag out any audit process, making auditing time and cost prohibitive.  Nobody likes the IRS, but they are a necessary evil for our country.
Jay Brown
- 1969 Mach 1, Drag Week 2005 Winner NA/BB, 511" FE (10.60s @ 129); Drag Week 2007 Runner-Up PA/BB, 490" Supercharged FE (9.35 @ 151)
- 1964 Ford Galaxie, Drag Week 2009 Winner Modified NA (9.50s @ 143), 585" SOHC
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Tommy-T

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2022, 02:09:34 PM »
Covid 19 and its effects have certainly rocked the economy with supply chain challenges and worker shortages.

The government giving money to encourage workers to stay home has added its own problems as well as spiking inflation.

But the real problem I see is that there is nobody coming in behind us old timers that want to do manual work at any wage. This has been going on many years before the covi-flu crisis was even thought of.
Case in point. I was an automotive tech for 40 years. Had my own shop for 21 years.
In the 21 years I had a shop, not even 1 time did I have a young individual come in the shop looking for work. You know, like the old days when a high school grad (or even a drop-out) would come by and ask for work and start by sweeping and cleaning. Then upgrade to oil changes and brake work, eventually, with school, be a journeyman tech making a living wage.

I will admit that getting greasy, busted knuckles, cut, burned, is not fun.
But who is going to do the work in our future?

428kidd

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #25 on: August 17, 2022, 02:26:59 PM »
Same for me Tommy in the body shop end. No one wants to start out and work up. Everyone thinks they should start in where I'm at 21 years in the business.

BIGBLOCKHEAD

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #26 on: August 17, 2022, 02:30:08 PM »
I just turned 65 and have been in car dealerships my whole career since 1978.  I work in the parts dept in a Cadillac store and parts availability has been an ongoing nightmare for 3 years for a variety of reasons (IT problems at GM, UAW strike, COVID) and it is getting worse rather than better,  I agree that many of my generation have left or are leaving their fields ASAP and our replacements are not up to the task.  We are constantly needing techs, the young guys we get are just not experienced enough or hungry enough or something enough to get it done.  The brain drain in our store has been dramatic, we have aged out all the veterans in all areas and it is a mess now.  I have so many cars down and waiting for sometimes months for a part that kills our business is so many ways.  Heck, we can barely get any new inventory to sell on the New Car showroom.  Ugh!

Falcon67

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #27 on: August 17, 2022, 04:01:27 PM »
Quote
I will admit that getting greasy, busted knuckles, cut, burned, is not fun.
But who is going to do the work in our future?

Here's the real question for sure. We need plumbers, electricians, carpenters, bricklayers, techs of all sorts.  Somehow those things got looked down on over time and I think that's really hurting us now.  There's a interesting thought going around that "American culture" has taken a turn thanks to the pandemic.  We - USA - are an outlier in many areas, including work.  US workers average something like 10 weeks more work/year than German workers, 5~6 more than some other European countries.  Most of us older people that have been at it for 30~40~? years grew up with "grab your ass and let's go" type environments.  Newer generations don't necessarily think like that.  We look and say "you're lazy, you don't like hard work".  They say "What did you get for 45 years in the salt mine - you're wore ass out at 6x or 7x years.  I don't want to live like that."  They're not wrong, just different.  I'm looking at 47 years before the mast, two different careers and can I retire?  If I look hard at what I have for what I gave - it doesn't balance.  If "retired" is SS income and working part time, that's the way I'm wired so no problem.  Trucking seems an example - a lot of the real pro drivers were older folks and after a long time dealing with all the problems, low pay, being away from home all the time finally came to "screw this" and they left.  There are very few interested in filling that gap, and we all saw how that impacted everything.  I read an article not long ago about migrant farm working issues.  The vast majority are older and are well into suffering the results of working years in the fields.  More health issues, less physical tolerance to working outside and such.  Their sons and daughters look at mom and dad and "I'll go find some better way to live." So there's a lot of work going on to find ways to mechanize crop harvesting - but there are some crops that just can't be harvested that way.  Now we have two problems - who's going to fix the mechanical stuff and who's going to pick the remainder.  Answers are not easily forthcoming. 

Directly in this hobby we love - locally here, probably 90% of the machine type shops are gone.  The owners got old, tired and closed to doors.  Or, they "died doing what they loved", like in their office.  There are only a couple left.  Those shops have plenty of work, but is it enough to entice someone to bear the tremendous debt load to open a full featured shop, not even counting the issues that started this thread?  I think diesel work primarily sustains those shops.  When my ex-2020 F-350 had an engine recall for potentially mis-installed piston oilers, the dealer didn't pull the motor and inspect or repair.  Ford shipped a complete 7.3 and they did a swap.  Friend that runs the service section of the service sector of the local Lincoln dealer had his master tech retire.  He's strapped for transmission repair and has at least one tech in training, but that takes a while.  So he has to send that work out to other dealers.  And yea - parts.  I was in recently for an oil change and trailer control re-flash (recall) and one of the service writers was basically dedicated to calling customers to line up scheduled repair times because they finally got a shipment of parts for those jobs.  Some customers waiting 6~8~10 weeks. 

I work at a university and I'm encouraged that we're putting in a new Mechanical Engineering program.  That's a big stretch for a traditionally small, older "liberal arts" (music/theater/humanities) institution.  I hope it pays off.  We have a chance to expose a new generation to making things in the new tech world.  You hear the asking of companies saying "we need people that can think and do stuff" so, we're going to try.  Even if not at the university level, tech schools should be getting more air play IMHO.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2022, 04:07:12 PM by Falcon67 »

CV355

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #28 on: August 18, 2022, 06:58:39 AM »
We need plumbers, electricians, carpenters, bricklayers, techs of all sorts.

As long as testosterone keeps falling in the general male population, the younger generations are going to flock away from those types of jobs.  I feel like the automotive hobby is a good litmus test...  A lot of millennials and zoomers don't even want to get a license and drive these days.  It's sad to think about, but we're probably only a decade or two away from seeing the automotive hobby die out entirely.  Once EVs become more prevalent, the hobby will turn into "check it out, I made my electric car make Marvel movie sounds!" 



TJ

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #29 on: August 18, 2022, 07:21:16 AM »
We need plumbers, electricians, carpenters, bricklayers, techs of all sorts.

 Once EVs become more prevalent, the hobby will turn into "check it out, I made my electric car make Marvel movie sounds!"

The newer mustangs have buttons to change the exhaust sound...

Lot of research going into self driving cars...LOT of research.

Falcon67

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #30 on: August 18, 2022, 10:20:26 AM »
The innovation is there, you just don't see it much yet.  AEM has a whole set of products to control aftermarket, crate and even Tesla drive units

https://www.aemev.com/

Their stuff put down the first 200+ MPH EV dragster run.  They have the stuff to retro fit EV drives into hot rods and etc.  "Engine swap" is evolving right now.  Chew on a Tesla-swapped Mustang. Hot Rod's (formerly Pop Rod's) Project X is now a full EV swap project. 

Until we get Luke Skywalker's land speeders, there's still tires, brakes and systems that somebody has to trouble shoot and repair.  Need people to retrofit buildings with energy efficient windows, sort out the power integration from solar panels, science out "smart" lighting systems, connect and service HVAC systems.  When PCs started landing on desks, typing pools evaporated.  But it required a whole new set of skills that brought in a fresh set of tasks. 

Ford CoPilot 360 Driver Assist - the 2021 F-150 has this.  It's got a lot of capabilities, but I can assure you there's a LONG way to go on that self-drive business.


Jim Kramer

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Re: Sorry guys......
« Reply #31 on: August 18, 2022, 04:25:56 PM »
But if they were simply replacing retiring employees they wouldn't need such a massive increase in funding, unless they were going to increase everyone's salary by about one hundred present. This isn't good..........Jim Kramer

Joe-JDC

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #32 on: August 18, 2022, 04:47:37 PM »
The news releases I have seen say "an ADDITIONAL 87,000 IRS agents".  You have to read all the information.  Joe-JDC
Joe-JDC '70GT-500

BattlestarGalactic

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #33 on: August 18, 2022, 04:50:25 PM »


The newer mustangs have buttons to change the exhaust sound...

Lot of research going into self driving cars...LOT of research.

My sister has a 2022 5.0 6 spd conv. and it had a recall due to wire harness to the mufflers was damged due to bad routing and burnt wires.  It's all good now but that is surely something that I would NOT want to have to pay to fix!   Too many gimmicks and not worth it.
Larry

shady

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #34 on: August 19, 2022, 08:17:59 AM »
87K? That's laughable. Where are they going to find that many people to work when no one else can get one person to hire. never going to happen. If they hire 10 a day it would take 24 years to fill plus all the ones leaving or retiring. Never going to happen, scare tactic.
What goes fast doesn't go fast long'
What goes fast takes your money with it.
So I'm slow & broke, what went wrong?
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machoneman

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #35 on: August 19, 2022, 08:42:58 AM »
87K? That's laughable. Where are they going to find that many people to work when no one else can get one person to hire. never going to happen. If they hire 10 a day it would take 24 years to fill plus all the ones leaving or retiring. Never going to happen, scare tactic.

Yeah, guess who merely took the new monies and divided it by the average salary of an IRS employee. Voila, 87,000 field agents banging on doors. I think not. In fact, it was long overdue to add staff to process huge backlogs of refunds due average Americans like us. That and, once again, after a long layoff, offering free tax advice by phone, email and text messages to those who can't afford a tax specialist.

Who should (rightfully) be afraid? Big corporations who post massive profits and pay little in taxes due. Them and rich dudes who employ a cadre of tax avoidance folks, many who blatantly skirt the law knowing they have little to fear. Yeah, I welcome the added $ to the IRS since if your paying your fair share, you have nothing to fear.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2022, 12:23:50 PM by machoneman »
Bob Maag

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #36 on: August 19, 2022, 10:48:15 AM »
The newer mustangs have buttons to change the exhaust sound...

Lot of research going into self driving cars...LOT of research.

The active exhaust is pretty neat, but it's just a butterfly valve with a variable position controller.  The EVs that mimic ICE sounds are a bit weird to me.  Hearing  a sound through a speaker and hearing the same sound from the real source are always going to be different.

SDV technology has been in development since the 1950's, back when tow motors started being guided by wire instead of rail.  What we're seeing in EVs for self-driving technology is a combination of vision guidance, LIDAR, and GPS technologies that have been developed in industry over the decades.  Machine vision is as impressive as it is finicky.  18 years ago, a good vision system was $50k+ and had a 0.08mpx resolution.  These days, you can get a 12mpx industrial high-speed camera for $12k, and basic 0.3mpx "checkers" for $600.  Huge advances every year.  I deal with sales reps all the time who demo these units, make it look absolutely perfect, and then we have nothing but trouble with the unit in an actual real-world environment.  Deep learning is the game changer there.  You basically feed a program examples of OK and NOK to learn from, with nuances, and the program develops its own set of criteria.  Any time you solve a Captcha online, you're feeding a deep learning program.  Here's the scary part though...  when EVs start adopting "machine learning," it brings in the topic of ethics.  Machines don't have ethics, so someone has to assign priority to scenarios.  You've probably read articles about a certain EV automaker getting in trouble because an EV might choose to harm the driver instead of harming pedestrians in the event of a crash. 

So, how does that relate back to the topic of the thread?  Future looking bleak and all?  It's trending towards rental over ownership.  EVs are being pushed to total autonomy, and the cost is going to be more than what most people can afford.  Many people will be pushed to simply "rent" an EV when they need to get somewhere instead of owning one.  That's bleak. 

BattlestarGalactic

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #37 on: August 19, 2022, 02:52:03 PM »
Look at car leases in the last 20+yrs.  It's a safer way to be so you don't have to deal with repairs after it gets miles on it.  No one wants to "own" anything anymore.  Housing is about the same.  Rent, and let someone else deal with it.  So when it's all said and done, those people will have nothing tangible when they retire.  Just the shirt on their back....maybe.  They will be paying rent til the day they die.
Larry

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #38 on: August 21, 2022, 08:49:36 PM »
what is going on today, is not about politics.  It is about Good Vs. Evil.


Good Luck to us ALL

Jay, Delete this post if you feel the need
it is hard to balance your check book with your testoserone level
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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #39 on: August 22, 2022, 03:58:56 PM »
Part of it was 25 or so years ago the buzz word was college. Everyone that was anyone had to go to college to get a good job. Which was horse crap , but that's what got told to kids. Then they went to college on someone elses dime, to party there ass off and get a degree that they can't use in the real world. Mean while all those guys that went in to tech jobs got looked down on as not as smart or not as good of job. Now things are kind of reversing . Also of tech jobs pay better than some of the college jobs . As far as what the young kids feel like? I don't care , I call it what it is lazy. Think you got it bad after 45 in the salt mine , just think of how well you would be if you had 45 years sitting on your duff? Think it's bad now that's right it could be worse no house no race car , etc etc etcm. I really don't care as long as I don't have to keep up some lay about dead beat who decides he or she don't want to work, fine by me starve, but don't stand in line for government hand outs from the people that do work and pay and pay in. Remember the government don't have any money except what we the people give it . 

StarlinerRon

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #40 on: August 22, 2022, 08:17:09 PM »
Leasing a car is just paying someone to arrange financing and sell the car for you at the lease end.

If you damage it or run up excess mileage (according to the contract) you will pay for it dearly.

Leasing is an easy way for companies to eliminate most of the bookkeeping for company cars for tax returns.

Most big auto auctions are returned lease cars. They keep used car prices high by setting high reserves on them and now prices are very high because of the new car shortages.

Ron.

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #41 on: August 23, 2022, 08:42:34 AM »
Right now people who leased cars and are at the end of the lease have a gold mine. They buy the car at the end rather than turn it in and are selling them for thousands over the buy back.
What goes fast doesn't go fast long'
What goes fast takes your money with it.
So I'm slow & broke, what went wrong?
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BattlestarGalactic

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #42 on: August 23, 2022, 04:50:45 PM »
Leasing a car is just paying someone to arrange financing and sell the car for you at the lease end.

If you damage it or run up excess mileage (according to the contract) you will pay for it dearly.

Leasing is an easy way for companies to eliminate most of the bookkeeping for company cars for tax returns.

Most big auto auctions are returned lease cars. They keep used car prices high by setting high reserves on them and now prices are very high because of the new car shortages.

Ron.

Some years back I had a friend whose daughter had to park her lease and buy something else to help save the huge penalty for excessive mileage.  I'm guessing she never read the fine print(seemed to be her problem on many things now looking back).

Selling anything is a big deal now.  Money for nothing as long as you don't need to replace said item.  Friend bought new Bronco, was told drive it for a year and dealership would give him more then he paid for it.  Crazy.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2022, 04:53:06 PM by BattlestarGalactic »
Larry

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #43 on: August 24, 2022, 06:39:31 AM »
Long term, the future does look brighter. Here's why.

-many US firms are bringing jobs back here to eliminate those supply chain bottlenecks.
-the semi-conductor shortage revealed the need to not only mine raw materials here and in Canada, but also to build those semi-conductors here.
-like wise, the slowdown of most industry in China due to Covid-19 (mandatory closures) was just getting back up to speed when now, a severe and long term drought has dried up major rivers, cutting hydro-electric power and causing massive stoppages to most major industries.

Sure, it's going to take time for these and other changes (I could go on but..) but we're headed in the right direction these days. That's my take.     
Bob Maag

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #44 on: August 24, 2022, 11:07:45 AM »
Quote
Selling anything is a big deal now.  Money for nothing as long as you don't need to replace said item.  Friend bought new Bronco, was told drive it for a year and dealership would give him more then he paid for it.  Crazy.

I upgraded from a 2020 XLT F-350 to a Lariat 2022 F-350 thanks to crazy trade in values, so you won't hear me complain LOL.

I think a major worry right now is really the drought conditions.  I just checked the ERCOT site and at 9AM Texas was making 3664 mW from just wind and solar alone.  Hovver Dam hydro is down to 1076 mw capacity as of June because of the drop in Lake Mead.  That one plant supposedly supplies power to 1.3m people, including Vegas.  The thought of that power plant going offline is very unnerving.  Mead is 93' above the point of having to stop the turbines.  I wonder if there is enough fossil power out there to make up the shortage should the worst come to pass.   


mike7570

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #45 on: August 24, 2022, 07:04:27 PM »
Right now people who leased cars and are at the end of the lease have a gold mine. They buy the car at the end rather than turn it in and are selling them for thousands over the buy back.
Gold mines are the people selling trailers in California to people who are leaving. I just sold my 20' Carson enclosed trailer for $9,500. I paid $5,000 for it in 2006 when it was 3yr old.
The buyer said he was moving to Kentucky and couldn't find anything decent for less.
That money was burning a hole in my pocket, so I bought a new 24' ATC trailer for the stocker.  ;D

Falcon67

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #46 on: August 25, 2022, 12:30:12 PM »
CA people that are moving to Texas to "escape the tax burden" better take a hard look before they sell the California Dream.  Property taxes here are not cheap and they could be in for a shock.  I've talked to a few that found out we - TX - didn't live up to the hype.  Certainly that depends on where you land.  As an example - we're in Taylor County - start looking at city, county and school rates in surrounding counties and if we moved 30 miles in about every direction we'd pay more, all else held equal.  Houston/Harris county is nuts - you'll have county, school, likely water, street, subdivision, HOA and who knows.  If you don't like the idea of an HOA, better ask when looking because most new subdivisions will have them.  Rural DOES NOT guarantee your taxes will be lower - most likely as a rate per $100 valuation on a home the rates will be higher.  Much higher.  Note we have counties with 1000+ sq/miles and maybe 900 people. 

CA average is #16 - TX is #46
https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/property-taxes-by-state
Compare TX and NM - TX no state income tax, no tax on most groceries.  NM - state income tax, tax on groceries but property tax less than half TX.  I've noted that a mobile home in NM not on a permanent foundation may not be taxed as a "home", so tax could be even less.  Solution - live in a mobile home outside of Las Cruces, drive to El Paso to buy groceries LOLOL

You will find less "regulation" in most places, especially rural TX.  Lots of smaller cities have very little building restrictions, low permit fees if they issue permits at all.  That certainly differs from CA.  Housing is certainly cheaper.  500K in CA is a 3-1 fixer upper, 500K here is a big house on acreage.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2022, 12:45:58 PM by Falcon67 »

mike7570

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #47 on: August 25, 2022, 05:34:00 PM »
That tax chart is not even close, there is no way a 505,000 house in CA only pays $1,644 property tax. The .76 rate does not include county, city or school district amounts which push the property tax rate over 1% just about everywhere, 1.02-1.20 is normal and you can't get a garage for 500K unless you live in the desert. Orange County where I lived for 30yr the average is over 1M. Add that to the high state income tax, gas tax, sales tax and you get the reason TX is a better deal. Most states are a better deal especially RED states.

jayb

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Re: The future doesn't look too bright.
« Reply #48 on: August 26, 2022, 11:48:13 AM »
Too much political stuff here, guys.  Take it elsewhere - Jay
Jay Brown
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