Its really not so much what the factor "is" as the apparent fact that their is something "different".
Despite best efforts, most every small shop dyno installation has some variables that have to be accommodated for. As an example, mine has a 90 degree turn in the exhaust behind the water tower, and the pipes then travel sideways through the cell to reach an outside wall, where they have another 90 degree bend and a pair of semi-truck mufflers and +/- 15 feet of vertical tubing to exit. Installations in more of a rural area might just poke straight out the back wall with zero restriction and no mufflers at all.
Being in Detroit, where the outside air temps are below freezing half the year, my installation breaths "shop air" (I crack an outside door during pulls) instead of running outside air. Breathing 15 degree temp outside air would not be realistic for any performance engine. Even with correction factors in play I see some clear variances when testing in August versus December....doubtless the reason that high dollar OE and NASCAR installations are controlled atmospherics as well.
Sounds like your exhaust might be compromised a bit. The dyno cell where I test does a lot of SBC circle track engines. These are usually 420 inch engines with high compression, solid rollers and good heads that make 700 to 750 hp. By changing the way the exhaust system was routed we were able to gain about 20 hp on that type of engine. So if your exhaust system is compromised you might be giving up some power on your builds.
I agree on the super cold air. I don't test if the CF is more than 5%. Fortunately the shop is located at 150 feet elevation and the weather tends to be moderate. So even in the middle of winter the CF rarely gets much below 1.00 and in summer it is rarely over 1.05.
BTW, I'm used to internet guys not believing the numbers. I had a 470 inch Mopar that made 600 hp and everyone thought that was a reasonable build. I spent 18 months, ran 120 dyno pulls and spent about $20K on parts and then that engine made 775 on pump gas. At that point a whole bunch of people started saying the numbers were wrong and the dyno was happy. None of these people had helped me with the engine or paid for the parts or spent 120 dyno pulls in the cell but they all "knew" the numbers were wrong.